The sequel is never as good as the original (The Godfather, Karate Kid and Weekend at Bernie’s, just to name a few). I’m certain that this adage was not developed with the heated rivalry between the Vikings and Packers in mind.
That is why this Sunday’s game will likely be as interesting as the first meeting between these two teams. If the Vikings win, they will be two games clear of their division foe. Should the Packers win, they will be tied for first with plenty of momentum going forward.
There are several keys to a Vikings win, so I have boiled them down to the following five:
1. Pressure/Sack Aaron Rodgers
In the Week 4 match-up, Rodgers was sacked eight times, 4.5 of which came courtesy of Jared Allen. The Packers’ offensive line was outmatched and outwitted by the Vikings’ pass rushers, which led to the huge output in sacks.
Pressuring Rodgers and forcing him off his launch point will be critical to success on defense because the Packers operate in a timing (west coast) offense. Any deviation from timing ruins the integrity of the pass plays, which leads to errant throws and interceptions. The Vikings do not have to net eight sacks, as they did in Week 4, but must sack Rodgers at least three or four times to instill doubt both in himself and the offensive line.
To date, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a league leading 25 times. His offensive line is porous and there are no signs of any improvement. On the right side, the Packers have one of the worst right tackles in the league, Alan Barbre (Mark Tauscher was signed late in the season to solidify this position, but is out due to injury. As it stands, Barbre will be starting on Sunday). In Week 4, Ray Edwards and Brian Robison routinely victimized Barbre with their speed and quickness. This Sunday, I expect more of the same from the duo of Edwards and Robison.
Chad Clifton will be starting at left tackle, but could be limited due to injury. If Clifton is re-injured, T.J. Lang will replace him. Either way, Jared Allen will have another monster day against these inferior athletes on the outside.
2. Limit Big Plays in the Passing Game
With Winfield likely out again this Sunday, the Vikings will have to limit the big plays (20-plus yards) of the Packers’ receivers. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are capable of taking a quick slant the distance, so tackling will be key to success on defense.
This aspect goes in hand with the first key of the game, as the pass rush must get to Rodgers soon enough in order to disrupt the rhythm and timing of the passing game. Look for the Vikings to bring blitzes up the “A” gap to force Rodgers to either escape the pocket or move off his desired launch point. The defensive ends must contain Rodgers in the pocket so he does not escape and make a throw down the field, as Rodgers has demonstrated an ability to throw accurately on the run.
Therefore, containment on the edges will be key to limiting the big plays in the vertical passing game.
3. Establish the Run
In the last meeting, the Packers were determined to not allow Adrian Peterson to beat them. They succeeded in doing so, as Peterson rushed for only 55 yards on 25 carries.
Although the Vikings were able to beat the Packers with an aerial assault, a win this week will require a 100-yard game from Peterson. The Packers are more explosive on offense then they were in Week 4. A solid rushing attack from the Vikings would keep the potent passing game of the Packers on the sideline and eat up more of the clock. Invariably, the Vikings will have more opportunities to score points, as drives will be sustained with a consistent rushing attack.
Running against the Packers will be a challenge, as they are 10th in the NFL in yards allowed on the ground (97.5). Even more impressive is the 3.5 yards per carry allowed by the Packers.
As in Week 4, the Vikings must show a commitment to the run because the offense is predicated off the rushing attack. Play-action pass and deep routes to Sydney Rice and Percy Harvin will be more available with a consistent rushing attack.
4. Receivers Must Beat Man-to-Man Coverage
In Week 4, the Vikings were faced with a lot of zone coverage, to which Favre picked apart for 271 yards and three touchdowns. The defensive backs looked lost in Dom Capers’ zone-scheme, which called for each player being responsible for a certain part of the field.
The Packers have junked the idea of playing zone and have employed a man-to-man scheme with their corners. This makes sense because both Al Harris and Charles Woodson thrive in man-to-man schemes, as each is able to read the tendencies of the receiver and quarterback, and make a play on the ball.
Sydney Rice has emerged as the Vikings most prolific pass catcher and is seventh in the league in total yards (545). This week he must be able to beat the press coverage of either Al Harris or Charles Woodson and make himself available for Favre. Look for Favre to hit Rice on a combination of deep crossing and fly passes in order to stretch the integrity of the cornerbacks. In doing so, it will not give the defensive backs a key as to where the next pass is coming from.
Percy Harvin will pose a match-up problem for the older Harris and Woodson, who struggle with quick, shifty receivers. Look for the Vikings to send Harvin on a combination of quick slant and deep routes to expose the slower-footed defenders, especially in light of the Packers’ employment of man-to-to schemes.
Visanthe Shiancoe should also have a big day against the Packers man-scheme, particularly in the redzone. Outside of Brandon Chillar, the Packers’ linebackers are slow and incapable of keeping up with speedy tightends. If the Vikings are unable to pound in the ball from the goal line, Shiancoe will be utilized on a quick pass over the top or in the flats.
5. Childress Must Remain Aggressive
In the Week 4 match-up in Minneapolis, the Vikings pushed the score to 28-14 with 11 minutes to go in the third quarter. Outside of Jared Allen’s sack of Rodgers in the endzone for a safety, the Vikings did not score a single point for the remainder of the game. The final score was 30-23, but it should have never gotten that close.
Childress has displayed an unwillingness to go for the jugular when his team is up by a significant margin. Against the Ravens, the team built up a 14-point lead in the first quarter, but did not seem to press the issue thereafter. Consequently, the Ravens fought their way back and should have won the game, but for a missed field goal at the end of regulation.
This week, the play calling must remain aggressive from the outset until the final blow of the whistle. Otherwise, Rodgers is more than capable of leading his team back from any deficit, especially in light of the deficiency at cornerback for the Vikings.
[Shahaab Tehrani can be reached at: shahaabt@yahoo.com]
Your assessment is solid. And I couldn’t agree more with point number 5. The Vikings have always had this problem in my opinion. Sadly as the Vikings have discovered too many times to count, when you’re ahead is the time to really step it up and play even harder. Conservative play will end up getting you conservative results.
I made a correction to the first key, where the offensive line is discussed. This update is based on the latest injury report, but could change on game day. Enjoy the game and let’s see if my predictions play out. Speaking of which, my prediction is: 31-20, Vikings.