Tailgate Radio Episode #6 Is Now Live

[Jammer]

http://www.tailgate365.com/2011/06/tailgate365-radio-episode-6-june-29-2011/

[rabb]

FYI, I did manage to fix the Facebook link for us (as discussed in the cast)

http://www.facebook.com/tailgate365

[stinky613]

My original message to Jammer was:

I was thinking about the Vita and wondered why people are optimistic. You would probably remember better than I--has Sony introduced any successful portable electronic device besides the Walkman?

I never bought a PSP. From the very little in-my-hand exposure I had to the system I was not impressed. Nothing I read really impressed me much either. To each his own.

I went to Sony's esupport page to get a list of portable devices that they've made and supplemented that information with Wikipedia. I put in bold the devices that I think were successes (with the addition of the PSP for its 70mil units worldwide over 5 years and three generations). Which devices would you have bolded?

1979 Walkman
1984 CD Walkman (Discman)
1989 Video Walkman
199? DAT Walkman
1992 MiniDisc Walkman
1999 Network Walkman (their original iPod challenger, first gen supported only ATRAC3)
1999 Pocketstation (one year only in Japan)
2000 CLIE
2002 NetMD MiniDisc Walkman
2004 Hi-MD MiniDisc Walkman
200? ATRAC HDD Walkman
200? Walkman MP3 (Walkman Core, Walkman Circ, Walkman Bean)
200? VAIO Pocket Player
2005 PlayStation Portable (PSP-1000, PSP-2000, PSP-3000)
2006 Mylo
2009 Reader
2009 PSP Go

2011 PS Vita (only time will tell)

I wasn't considering products from the Sony Ericsson joint venture, but to my knowledge they've never dominated their market. I also wasn't considering digital camcorders--admittedly I would guess they've all been very successful.

[stinky613]

A quick glance back at Sony's page found 9 kinds of digital camcorders and 4 kinds of portable dvd players. If you add them to my list all as successes (hypothetically), that would put it at roughly 50-50 flops-successes.

[rabb]

Yeah, but the 50% success there, is a pretty big success

In gaming terms, the Go was the only real "flop"

[JohnnyHustler]

Considering Sony's tendency to overprice, the 50/50 success rate is probably more than they should have achieved.

Here's why I think the PS Vita will be strong:

1. Although it was in 2nd place, the PSP was a strong seller at 70 million worldwide as of this April. And that was even with a terrible price point to start out considering the technology that was in that system (basically, somewhere between the PS1 and PS2 in power).
2. The Go was doomed to fail with the same price point as the original PSP for no better tech (and not all games offered digitally). They tried to push digital distribution without having the plan in place. They will iron this out for the Vita.
3. The price point for this system is the same point as the 3DS for what I feel is a better system. Since the 3DS has started slow, Sony may be able to get the jump on them, even if Nintendo drops the price of the 3DS. Either way, this should become the handheld of choice for the more serious gamer.
4. Better 3rd party support reportedly, and better exclusives from Sony. Word is that LBP2 is already better for the Vita than it is for the PS3.

[rabb]

plus you are jammer's brother, so you are wrong to begin with

[stinky613]

How is a 50% success rate a pretty big success? Can you elaborate with a parallel to another business where having half of your products basically fade away is a great thing--especially when you have the kind of R&D and marketing power that Sony has?

I'll agree that the Go was the only unequivocal gaming failure. The comment that started this whole discussion was an honest question if I was missing resounding success stories in Sony's portable device library because I couldn't think of any other than the Walkman/Discman.

[stinky613]

plus you are jammer's brother, so you are wrong to begin with

I can't argue with science

[rabb]

my point is, the 50% they hit on...were BIG hits, the misses won't make them stop trying

they are big enough that they can throw crap at every market wall, all day and not feel the pain as much as some would

in the portable gaming space, they are #2....so I guess it leaves me personally optimistic that they won't blow it, especially after the bath they probably took with Go

now, if Vita is a hit...that will make 2/3 of their portable gaming efforts being solid...would that change your opinion?

[stinky613]

my point is, the 50% they hit on...were BIG hits, the misses won't make them stop trying

they are big enough that they can throw crap at every market wall, all day and not feel the pain as much as some would

in the portable gaming space, they are #2....so I guess it leaves me personally optimistic that they won't blow it, especially after the bath they probably took with Go

now, if Vita is a hit...that will make 2/3 of their portable gaming efforts being solid...would that change your opinion?

If it's a hit? Yes, probably.

[Jammer]

I love Lamp.

[miketheknife]

Wouldn't jammer's brother also be a jammer though?

Anyway I have a sony walkman MP3 player and it kicks ass.

[rabb]

eh, maybe it's just how I think and I am not an informed consumer but I just wouldn't have thought to myself "man that Video Walkman in 1989 sure sucked, no way am I buying Vita!"

I know your argument (with good facts btw, thank you) is more complex than that...but I just don't look at it that way

I will concede, most companies cannot afford a 50/50 success rate, but some (and even the one I work for, which I won't name but is in the telecom industry) absolutely makes new products constantly to stay in the market and a lot of them are duds....and again in my company's case, they have had enough "hits" to afford to do that

smart business? maybe not...but it's not that uncommon

[JohnnyHustler]

Look at Apple and Nintendo. Both are batting right around the 50/50 mark historically. The only difference is their hits were concentrated into a smaller period of time, so they look like geniuses. However, their misses also were concentrated to a smaller time period, and both were on the brink of complete failure. Even right now, the Mac has an adoption rate of around 10% at best, yet they are considered a powerhouse because they own the MP3 market and the smartphone market (although Android is taking away a lot of that market share monthly). At best, you can say they are at 66% success currently, and I'm not even factoring in the yet to get off the ground Apple TV.