The Mile High Salute

VS

Denver lost last week to the miserable Washington Redskins to drop to 6-3 on the season.  Combined with a San Diego win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week and we have (deja vu) a tie atop the AFC West with a game that will likely determine the division champion.  The Chargers are also at 6-3 and seem to be on a roll while Denver has lost 3 straight and seem to be reeling.

Denver heads into the game ranked 6th overall in team defense in the NFL (12th against the run and 5th against the pass).  San Diego is ranked 14th overall in team defense (23rd against the run and 11th against the pass).

Denver is currently ranked 22nd (see a trend?) in the league in total offense (17th in passing and 16th in rushing) while the Chargers are sitting at 17th (7th in passing and 32nd in rushing).

This should be an interesting game to say the least.  Last season, the Chargers came in and embarrassed the Broncos in Denver to clinch the division.  Denver traveled to San Diego earlier in the season and defeated the Chargers through some special teams magic and solid pressure on Rivers.  The key to this game is going to be who is playing quarterback for Denver.

San Diego is a tough team to read.  They always start off slowly then turn the jets on to finish strong in the division.  Denver has been the exact opposite, but will that stick this season again?  They may be getting center Nick Hardwick back from injury which they will need to help their dismal running game.  They rank dead last in the league in offensive rushing, and it is hurting them.

To win this game, San Diego will have to do a few things well.  First, they have to protect Philip Rivers.  In their last meeting, many drives were stone walled by pressuring Rivers or sacking him.  If San Diego wants to stay in the game, they have to allow Rivers to survey the field and attack.

Second, the Chargers must keep pressure on whoever is leading the team at quarterback for Denver.  If it is Kyle Orton, you can expect a heavy dose of pressure since he won’t be very mobile (not that he is anyhow) with a bum ankle.  If it is Simms, expect more of the same to try and rattle the backup in his first start with the Broncos.  I expect the Chargers to stack the line and bring the heat on almost every down until Denver can prove them wrong.

Finally, the Chargers have to tighten up their special teams coverage.  They weren’t just bad against Denver but it cost them that game in particular.  Those hidden yards and points will kill a team, no question.

For Denver to win, they will need solid quarterback play.  Orton is likely to start but will not be 100%.  His ankle injury is not on his planting foot so aside from being more immobile than normal he should be throwing fine.  If Simms starts, I can only hope he had one hell of a week with the first team in practice because he looked miserable last week in relief.

Aside from the quarterback issue, Denver must establish the run early and often.  They were having a lot of success against the Redskins, and the Chargers are not very good against the run this year.  This could be tricky because Denver may be forced to keep some extra blockers in for Orton if he plays in order to keep him in the game.

The Broncos also must block effectively to stay in this game.  Pressure on the quarterback is always a bad thing but especially when the quarterback has a bad ankle.  The bottom line is, if San Diego can get to Orton or Simms, it will be a long day for Denver.

The offense has to get things rolling, and turnovers are a huge part of that.  Denver wins almost every game when they create more turnovers than they give up.

Denver absolutely must pressure Philip Rivers and get back to their solid defense against the run.  This is how they beat San Diego before and how they can beat them again.  I look for the defense to be fired up this game after an absolute meltdown last week.  I believe Ryan McBean will be back this game also which will help the line.

Finally, special teams.  I know I sound like a broken record but Denver has to fix their issues.  That fake field goal last week was inexcusable and San Diego has a lot of power in the return game to make teams pay.

I know that this isn’t an actual “must win” for Denver to keep a playoff hope alive but in my opinion it is.  They need this win for confidence and to finally show the divisional bully that they can stand up to them.  San Diego has really taken it to the Broncos when it mattered in the past few years and I am just not sure what will happen this week.  Although I think Denver has a great shot, I am sticking to my predictions I am calling a Chargers victory by a final score of 38-17 to seal up the AFC West yet again. I hate saying that, but until Denver proves they can handle San Diego at home when it matters, it is a tough sell for me.

I will be at the game rooting them on in any case, and hope I am proven wrong.

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