Broncos Week 8 Preview: Denver at Baltimore

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Ahhh the feeling of coming off of the bye week.  I actually had to care about other teams for 2 days.  Denver and Baltimore both get 2 weeks to prepare what should shape up to be a pretty damn good game in week 8 when the Broncos visit the Ravens.  The Ravens are a 3.5 point favorite as I type this, and I don’t see that moving.

Denver (6-0) heads into the game ranked 2nd overall in team defense in the NFL (3rd against the run and 8th against the pass).  Baltimore (3-3) is ranked 19th overall in team defense (7th against the run and 23rd against the pass).

Denver is currently ranked 9th in the league in total offense (12th in passing and 7th in rushing) while the Ravens are sitting at 5th (8th in passing and 10th in rushing).

Frankly, the Ravens scare the hell out of me.  They have such a dynamic offense which is sort of amazing seeing that their wide receiving corps isn’t really their strong suit.  Joe Flacco is a gamer, and he will be up there with the best of them as his career progresses.  Their defense has some holes, particularly in the secondary, but is still as fierce as they come.  Ray Lewis is still Ray Lewis and with Haloti Ngata and Terrell “Sizzle” Suggs on the front 7 they pose a very formidable threat both with their pass rush and run stopping prowess.  Never mind the ball-hawking Ed Reed roaming the secondary.

Add in the extra week to prepare, coming off a heartbreaking loss and being in their own house Sunday…they are going to be a driven team.  For the Ravens to win, they will have to do a few things well.  The most obvious is to get pressure on Kyle Orton.  Orton has been top notch this year with managing games and not making mistakes.  A large part of this success is due to having one of the top offensive lines in the league.  They will need every bit of that reputation to come through on Sunday to give Orton time in the pocket.  With their secondary not playing as well as the front 7, Baltimore cannot afford to let Orton pick them apart and need to dictate what Denver does with the ball more effectively.

Second, I think Baltimore can really hurt the Broncos by utilizing Ray Rice and Todd Heap in the flats and on screens.  Rice is as shifty and dynamic as Darren Sproles and that creates a problem for almost any team.  The one weakness I have noticed through this entire season is the use of screens and the tight end against the Broncos and I am sure we will see a steady diet of that until Denver proves they can contain it.

Finally, Baltimore will need to give Flacco the time he needs to find someone to pass to.  Denver has an excellent pass rush this year that brings exotic blitz packages with pressure from everywhere on the field potentially.  Baltimore should have their mountain of a left tackle Gaither back this game and they will need him.  If Baltimore can block and protect without needing extra men on the line (Heap and their running backs) then they can do some damage.

So, what does Denver have to do in order to win this game?  I have several things in mind actually.  First, and most importantly in my opinion, they cannot get behind early.  I know, I know…Denver is dominating teams in the second half by a total of 76-10 this year.  You cannot expect that to happen all season.  Denver has started slowly on offense and defense nearly every game this season and I think it is going to catch up to them.  Scoring early and stopping the Ravens early will not only prove valuable later but could help Denver dictate what the Baltimore offense does.

Building on my last point, Denver needs to control the clock and win the turnover battle.  You cannot let the 5th ranked offense have the ball more than you, plain and simple.  Eventually they will hurt you and show why they are ranked 5th.  If Denver can establish the passing game early and effectively, they can likely slow the tempo and run the ball.  Yes, the Ravens are stout against the run but they have shown some weakness this season and with some creative plays *cough* please don’t run up the middle all day *cough* the Broncos can keep the defense guessing.  My money says they use the Wild Horses formation a few times to keep things honest.

Finally, the defense will have to keep Baltimore offense in check to have any chance of a win.  Stopping the run is obvious but getting pressure on Flacco will make or break this game for Denver.  They are a very dangerous offensive team, similar to the Chargers in many ways, and Denver will have to keep the heat on all day.  An absolute key to all of this will be covering the screens and tight end, which means they will need their line backers like never before.  Denver is going to need all 3 phases again this week to have a shot.

Denver is in the meat of their tough schedule and is coming off the bye to face one of the AFC’s elite.  This is the game where they can show their versatility and ability to game plan.  So where do I stand on the game?  I am staying true to my now rediculously wrong season predictions again.  I think Denver could win this game, but there is just too much on the line for a great Ravens team.  It pains me to say it, but I am calling a Ravens victory in an exciting game by a final of 27 – 17.

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